When we think about the Resettlement of Dragon Pass, it is worth thinking about the groups of settlers a little.
Colymar: The first group, which entered Dragon Pass around 1300. They were a small Hendriki-Esrolian group, numbering maybe 300 or so people, with cattle and sheep. They initially founded a little unwalled village along the Stream, relocating in the ruins of an older fortress only after their village got burned down in 1320.
Remember, at this time Kethaela was overwhelmingly rural and everyone still had to pay tribute to the Only Old One and his trolls, without getting much for it. Material technology was not likely their strong suit, so I imagine those early buildings were mud-brick, wood, and thatch.
The First Wave: These were settlers from the Hendriki-Esrolians (but mainly Hendriki). They were fleeing the upheavals of Belintar’s war against the Only Old One. Many were Orlanth traditionalists opposed to the rapid religious changes introduced by Belintar. Others were losers in that war – warriors, outlaws, bandits. This was a much bigger group, and might have number somewhere between 2500+ settlers.
Arim the Pauper: Arim was the advanced scout of a large wave of Sairdite refugees fleeing from the wars of the Conquering Daughter. Although most of Saird was organized in the Kynnelfing Alliance, one Orlanth priest decided to return to Dragon Pass. Many followed him, and after the fall of Mirin’s Cross and Filichet in 1347, a flood of refugees entered Dragon Pass, likely numbering in the tens of thousands.
The Sairdites founded new settlements as previously described – Bagnot, Dunstop, Alda-Chur, etc. These settlers included many crafters, warriors, priests, and others. They could fire bricks, but still most buildings were mud-brick, wood, and thatch. Still, they were able to build up a civilization around Bagnot and Kordos Island quickly, and had aid from the Beast People, the Pure Horse People, and the dragonewts. Although the Orlanth cult drove this wave of settlement, settlers included the other Lightbringer cults.
The Second Wave: Around 1380-1430 another big rush of Hendriki settlers entered Dragon Pass. Some were refugees from the Volsaxi Wars, but more were seeking land, opportunities, or religious pilgrims. This wave numbered more than ten thousand, maybe it was comparable in size to the Sairdite refugees (although it was spread out over 50 years).
These settlers also included more crafters than the First Wave, but were mainly farmers and pastoralists. Again, mostly mudbrick, wood, and thatch construction, but better tools, more resources, etc. Kethaela has benefited from several generations of rule by Belintar and his Tournament of the Masters of Luck and Death. Like all the waves of settlement, the Orlanth cult drove the process, but I think this one also included more of the other Lightbringer cults.
Sartar: Sartar entered Dragon Pass around 1470 after having already participated in the Tournament of the Masters of Luck and Death. He was very educated, literate, and magically experienced, and was accompanied by the great artist-crafter Wilms (who was from Nochet I believe). Sartar befriended the dwarfs and the dragonewts to build his cities, and his heirs learned (or stole) the secrets of stonecrafting from them.
Hon-eel: Hon-eel brought tens of thousands of settlers from the Lunar Heartlands with her to settle her new city of Furthest in 1492. These included farmers, crafters, priestesses, scribes, and more. Fired-brick buildings built according to the most advanced techniques of Pelorian architecture, and benefiting from a generation of city construction in the Heartlands.
Those last two entries completely changed the nature of Dragon Pass. Hon-eel may well have settled 20-30,000 Lunars from the Heartlands in Tarsh, as big as any colony established by the Greeks or Romans.
Meanwhile, within a generation Sartar managed to build carefully planned cities, roads, libraries, and become incredibly rich through trade.
The Dragon Pass of 1520 bore little resemblance to that of 1470. In fifty years, the area is transformed.
How frequent were conflicts between settlers and those who already dwelled in Dragon Pass? Often. That’s why every older village has walls.
Somewhere in the vicinity of 155,000 people have come from elsewhere and settled in Dragon Pass from 1300-1625. Roughly 50,0000 came from Hendrikiland, roughly 45,000 came from are now the Lunar Provinces, roughly 50,000 came from the Lunar Heartlands, and roughly 10,000 came from Esrolia. That gives you a good feel for some aggregate numbers, although they did not obviously come at the same time or evenly distributed through time.
Many of the Esrolian setters ended up being enserfed by the Grazelanders. I suspect after 1400 or so, some Esrolians ended up joining the Second Wave into what became Sartar.
It is worth keeping in mind that for the Lunars, the mass movement of people into Tarsh was part of a general movement of people from the western Lunar Heartlands towards the east. I wouldn’t be surprised if over 250,000 people moved from what are now the Doblian, Sylila, and Silver Shadow satrapies to Oronin, Karasal, First Blessed and Oraya from 1460-1520, or on average some 4000 people a year.
During the Third and Fourth Wanes, much of Oronin and Karasal had become the New Grasslands, and First Blessed had been largely become semi-nomadic. Even Oraya was settled. The Lunars got really good at quickly building cities to be strongholds for cultivation.
It is worth remembering that the Dragonkill War combined with the Closing served to isolate Kethaela for two centuries. Long distance trade was confined to the caravans that went along the Manirian Road – which due to expense was going to be high value luxury goods only.
The Kethaela of 1300 was still in a Dark Age (quite literally thanks to the Only Old One).
It is worth mentioning that the Pure Horse People, who made up half the humans in the Pass even as late as 1350, were less than 10% of the humans in the Pass a century later. It isn’t that there numbers shrunk so much as they quickly were outnumbered by the settlers. Now they are barely a rounding error, less than 2% of the total population.
Between 1300 to 1625, more than 150,000 settlers came from Kethaela and Peloria to Dragon Pass. As a result, the human population of Dragon Pass exploded from some 5000 horse herding nomads to some 650,000 farmers, herders, crafters, scribes, merchants, warriors, and other specialists, with many cities, walled towns, and hill forts.
As an aside, as I put this data together, it becomes even clearer how much Furthest is a Heartland colony. It is not an Orlanthi city or even a “Tarshite” one – New Pelorian is the language of the city. Hon-eel brought enough settlers from the Heartlands that they never needed to learn Tarshite, and there has been a steady stream of immigrants from the Heartlands to Furthest.
Furthest is even more strongly “Lunar” in character than Mirin’s Cross and likely feels more like Jillaro than Filichet.